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Quarterly Outlook

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Decoding the Global Macro Environment
3Q 2025 Strategy Outlook

The start of the third quarter brings a familiar level of uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy, yet financial markets appear far less jittery than at the start of the prior quarter. While high-conviction predictions on tariffs are scarce, and understandably so, the immediate economic headwinds facing the U.S. have notably eased. This abatement is largely thanks to the passage of a significant fiscal stimulus bill, the structural robustness of the corporate sector, and the looming prospect of the first Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025.

Research

Decoding the Global Macro Environment
2Q 2025 Strategy Outlook

The first quarter of 2025 is likely to be etched in the memory of market participants. This period witnessed not only a marked recalibration of the prevailing narrative surrounding the U.S. economy, but a swift unraveling of long-held tenets of the global economic order- an unravelling that meaningfully accelerated in the beginning of the second quarter. The consequence was a notable sell-off in U.S. equities and a stark underperformance relative to their European counterparts, and a U.S. government bond market caught in the crosscurrents of subdued growth and elevated inflation. There was also considerable pressure on commodities, with indications of some forced portfolio de-leveraging.

Research

Decoding the Global Macro Environment
1Q 2025 Strategy Outlook

The world enters 2025 facing a consequential economic challenge: It must broaden its growth engines amid high debt, large deficits, and unusual policy uncertainties. Meeting this challenge is integral to maintaining the shield against harmful spillovers from messy geopolitical conditions. It is also closely related to unleashing productivity opportunities associated with exciting innovations in transformational sectors such as technology and life sciences.

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Decoding the Global Macro Environment
4Q 2024 Strategy Outlook

Thanks to consistently accommodating financial conditions, the relatively elevated market valuations of recent months have been able to sideline these uncertainties, benefiting instead from the attractive prospect of a U.S. soft landing AND sizeable Fed rate cuts in the next 12 months. This is also why we believe that cautious security selection and solid structuring are key to the resilient portfolios needed to navigate what on the surface appears to be a favorable equilibrium, but underneath, has notable elements of potential volatility.

Research

Emerging Markets Fixed Income
Poised to Thrive in the Fed’s Easing Wave

…we believe the upcoming easing cycle by the Federal Reserve represents a significant opportunity for EM debt. Historically, EM debt has performed well following U.S. rate cuts, and with EM central banks likely to lower rates to stimulate growth, the asset class is well-positioned for strong returns. Attractive yields, supported by solid fundamentals and a rebound in global risk sentiment, further enhance its appeal…

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Decoding the Global Macro Environment
3Q 2023 Strategy Outlook

This past quarter certainly witnessed the tug-of war between the policy trilemma facing central banks and climbing of the wall of worry that was characterized between positive carry and pull to par. We would not be surprised to see the next phase resulting in inflows that chase the recent returns and propel the asset class higher. We expect continued volatility that will permit for tactical positioning of capital driven by our top-down and bottom-up perspectives on the asset class and will therefore, continue to respect and embrace the volatility in the markets by planning the trade and trading the plan.

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