A primary challenge for investors in the second half of 2026 could well be not an absence of opportunity, but rather slow-adapting institutional mindsets. The traditional “bucketing” mindset is a particular risk, as it can sideline investment positions that are both attractive and risk-mitigating within otherwise traditional asset allocations.

Volatility isn’t a headline anymore – it’s the macro backdrop.

In our 2Q 2026 Quarterly Outlook, we break down how the Middle East shock is turning energy, supply chains, inflation, and policy into a set of non-linear outcomes – creating clear winners and losers across countries and asset classes. We are navigating markets where “mean reversion” can quickly become “multiple equilibrium”, making portfolio construction and risk management more critical than ever. Gramercy’s “Better Approach to Emerging Markets” is built for precisely this environment.

Ultimately, 2026 will be defined by a multi-modal distribution. Investors cannot cling to the comfort of the central scenario; they must prepare for a landscape where the tails carry as much cumulative weight as the center. In a year where dispersion – between nations, sectors, and households – reigns supreme, readiness for multiple scenarios is not just prudent, it is essential.

As we approach the close of 2025, we view emerging markets in a position of strength. For investors seeking to reduce concentration risk and better navigate an evolving global landscape, the asset class offers a broad, diverse, and increasingly stable opportunity set. We remain selective but confident in the long-term case for emerging markets across both public and private portfolios. Gramercy is ideally positioned to deliver strong results for the well-being of our clients utilizing the continued power of “A Better Approach to Emerging Markets®.”

The start of the third quarter brings a familiar level of uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy, yet financial markets appear far less jittery than at the start of the prior quarter. While high-conviction predictions on tariffs are scarce, and understandably so, the immediate economic headwinds facing the U.S. have notably eased. This abatement is largely thanks to the passage of a significant fiscal stimulus bill, the structural robustness of the corporate sector, and the looming prospect of the first Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025.

The first quarter of 2025 is likely to be etched in the memory of market participants. This period witnessed not only a marked recalibration of the prevailing narrative surrounding the U.S. economy, but a swift unraveling of long-held tenets of the global economic order- an unravelling that meaningfully accelerated in the beginning of the second quarter. The consequence was a notable sell-off in U.S. equities and a stark underperformance relative to their European counterparts, and a U.S. government bond market caught in the crosscurrents of subdued growth and elevated inflation. There was also considerable pressure on commodities, with indications of some forced portfolio de-leveraging.

The world enters 2025 facing a consequential economic challenge: It must broaden its growth engines amid high debt, large deficits, and unusual policy uncertainties. Meeting this challenge is integral to maintaining the shield against harmful spillovers from messy geopolitical conditions. It is also closely related to unleashing productivity opportunities associated with exciting innovations in transformational sectors such as technology and life sciences.

…we believe the upcoming easing cycle by the Federal Reserve represents a significant opportunity for EM debt. Historically, EM debt has performed well following U.S. rate cuts, and with EM central banks likely to lower rates to stimulate growth, the asset class is well-positioned for strong returns. Attractive yields, supported by solid fundamentals and a rebound in global risk sentiment, further enhance its appeal…