Keep calm, carry on…. but watch the tails
To understand the top-down forces at play in the global economy as we start 2026, one must view the year ahead not as a straightforward, single trajectory, but as a tension between three distinct scenarios accompanied by an unusual level of multi-faceted dispersion. As such, our discussion of the economic outlook focuses as intently on the “fat tails” as on the central scenario. This is especially true for the U. S. economy, which will retain an overwhelming influence on global growth and markets.
The central scenario is cautiously optimistic. It envisions robust American growth fueled by relentless investment in artificial intelligence and, increasingly, robotics. As both gradually transition from infrastructure build-out to deeper integration, capital expenditure will remain historically high. Supported by a still-resilient consumer and accommodating fiscal and monetary policy, the U.S. avoids a cyclical downturn.
Yet this growth comes with a sting: inflation is likely to remain sticky above the Federal Reserve’s target, preventing a return to ultra-low rates. Furthermore, a decoupling of GDP from employment may yield a period of “jobless growth,” exacerbating the “K-shaped” economy and keeping “affordability” at the center of political discourse. This will be accompanied by an international dimension to the theme of “dispersion.” The U.S. significantly outperforms a stagnant Europe and China, both seeking to revamp their growth models, while countries elsewhere navigate a tricky economic, financial and geopolitical terrain.
The upside scenario relies on a productivity miracle. Should the adoption of AI and robotics accelerate faster than anticipated, the U.S. would enter a non-inflationary boom. In this “Goldilocks on steroids” outcome, supply expands rapidly to meet demand, lifting corporate margins and wages without igniting inflation. This would ease fiscal and debt pressures and allow the Fed to cut rates more aggressively.
The downside scenario is equally plausible. Here, the primary peril lies in the bond market, where high deficits and debt costs, combined with significant AI reliance on borrowing, could rouse “bond vigilantes,” causing yield spikes that destabilize the financial system. Combined with potential policy errors, election-year instability, and geopolitical developments, this path leads to a stagflationary shock that the central scenario fails to capture.
Ultimately, 2026 will be defined by a multi-modal distribution. Investors cannot cling to the comfort of the central scenario; they must prepare for a landscape where the tails carry as much cumulative weight as the center. In a year where dispersion – between nations, sectors, and households – reigns supreme, readiness for multiple scenarios is not just prudent, it is essential.
Global Growth: Cruise Control with Fat Tails
The global economy demonstrated notable resilience last year, expanding by roughly 3% in real terms despite significant trade and geopolitical disruptions. By year-end, global PMIs remained in expansionary territory, with services continuing to outperform manufacturing.
In the U.S., the government reopening and subsequent release of delayed data revealed a mixed macro picture. Against this backdrop, the Fed delivered three 25 bps rate cuts in 2025, reflecting concerns over labor market softening and broader economic crosscurrents. In Europe, growth momentum remained largely stagnant, prompting the ECB to keep rates on hold. Meanwhile, China’s resilient external sector, despite a sharp decline in exports to the U.S., allowed policymakers to maintain a restrained approach to stimulus.
Looking ahead to 2026, we expect global growth to remain range-bound around 3%, alongside a modest narrowing of the emerging market/developed market growth differential and increasing divergence at the country level. In the U.S., technology-driven capital expenditure, combined with looser monetary and fiscal policy, should help cushion slowing consumption and trade. However, as mentioned above, the distribution of potential outcomes remains wide.
In Europe, growth is likely to remain subdued with the continuation of geoeconomic pressure to reorient policy toward domestic demand and defense spending. Meanwhile, incremental gains in competitiveness are possible through reforms to public procurement, deeper capital markets integration, and greater support for start-ups, but fractured politics continue to put limits on the bloc’s ability to meaningfully address economic challenges and regional security threats. A ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a meaningful upside risk to activity and sentiment.
In China, policy is expected to remain calibrated toward achieving growth of around 5%, with incremental measures aimed at addressing persistent structural headwinds, including deflationary pressures and weak domestic demand. Authorities will likely avoid large-scale trade-offs to more deeply address the deflationary pressures plaguing the economy. Should downside risks materialize from domestic or external channels, authorities are likely to accelerate stimulus.
Central Bank Policy: Accommodative Backdrop Spills into 2026
This year, we expect economic policy across key developed and emerging market economies to retain an easing bias, especially on the monetary policy side, given that many economies globally have limited fiscal space. Inflation dynamics will remain critical in determining central banks’ ability to deliver further stimulus without jeopardizing overall macroeconomic stability.
Following three 25 bps interest rate cuts in 2025 amid signs of a cooling U.S. labor market, median market expectations have coalesced around two to three further cuts by the Fed, likely in the first half of the year.
This would be positive for emerging markets; all else equal, easing financing conditions in developed markets tend to catalyze a supportive global macro backdrop for emerging market assets, especially if combined with decent global growth dynamics, which we expect at the start of 2026. A dovish Fed outlook is especially supportive of emerging markets’ local currency assets, which are likely to benefit from a continuation of the soft U.S. dollar seen in 2025.
As discussed above, the main risks to this overall benign global policy set-up for emerging markets come from inflation dynamics in the U.S., where a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policy could rekindle inflationary pressure concerns. In addition, uncertainty around the Fed’s independence and policymaking credibility could come back to the forefront as President Donald Trump appoints the next Fed Chair, with some candidates having openly argued for much lower interest rates, despite lingering inflation risks.
Most relevant emerging market economies continue to benefit from disinflationary trends. Inflation has returned to central banks’ target ranges, with some limited exceptions. However, continuation of benign inflation dynamics carries additional importance as we look forward to 2026. Significant monetary accommodation was already deployed across emerging markets last year, leaving little room for additional policy changes. In that context, we expect to see increasing market selectivity, and we will favor stories that still offer high real interest rates to shield against potential spillover from developed economies.
We see emerging markets remaining as relative winners in a global investment landscape characterized by institutional and fundamental quality erosion in traditional “safe haven” markets. This underpins the process of gradual credit quality convergence between developed and emerging economies. On the hard currency front, amid tight spread levels, we expect to continue favoring idiosyncratic stories with clear repricing triggers, such as elections or other political events, which could anchor constructive economic policy shifts.
Shifting Geopolitical Sands
We expect the U.S.– China trade truce reached last quarter to endure, although intermittent escalation remains possible. The growing importance of geoeconomics creates overlapping incentives for both sides to periodically rebuild leverage. Recent Chinese military drills near Taiwan, heightened China – Japan tensions, and U.S. intervention in Venezuela do not, in our view, materially increase the probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, although coercive measures and sustained pressure are likely to persist.
We anticipate that President Trump’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine- the so-called “Donroe Doctrine”- will remain a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy, aimed at expanding U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere to advance national interests, particularly countering China. In Venezuela, this strategy has culminated in the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and the installation of an interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez. This development raises the likelihood of a brokered political transition, improves medium-term prospects for the oil and mining sectors, and supports higher nominal GDP assumptions and debt recovery estimates. In addition, increased U.S. influence in Venezuela presents a structural headwind to China’s access to natural resources and related regional infrastructure.
In terms of global oil prices, a logical expectation is that higher production from Venezuela would put further downside pressure on the oil futures curve, all else being equal. However, ramping up Venezuelan oil production would be incremental and requires significant time and investment, to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars over the medium term. As such, the initial impact on global oil markets is likely to be muted, although the prospect of additional supply should keep a lid on near-term price appreciation. This could counter or ease inflationary pressures worldwide this year, including in the U.S. economy, supporting potential further easing of monetary policy by the Fed and other central banks.
Beyond Venezuela and its oil sector prospects, we expect the “Donroe Doctrine” to continue to have material implications for Latin American and Caribbean sovereigns. This means strong U.S. support for those countries whose leaders and policies are aligned with the Oval Office’s interests, and pressure on those that are opposed. Also, governments in the Western Hemisphere should be prepared to face stronger pressure from the Trump administration to “pick sides,” especially when it comes to China’s economic interests in the region, creating an increasingly challenging balancing act for many of them.
More broadly, one potential “second derivative” scenario stemming from new U.S. involvement in Venezuela includes more flexibility for the Trump administration and Israel to re-escalate pressure on Iran’s regime. This pressure would aim to spark the regime’s/government’s/Islamic Republic’s internal collapse and could be facilitated by the potential increase in Venezuelan oil output under U.S. sponsorship or control. This would offset any decline from material oil disruption in the Middle East.
Similar logic could apply in the case of Russia and its invasion of Ukraine – a conflict that will enter its fifth year in February. If current efforts to broker a ceasefire arrangement between Moscow and Kyiv fail, then the Trump administration could have greater flexibility to “get tougher” on the Russian sanctions front. Despite continuous shuttle diplomacy by key stakeholders and optical progress on providing “NATO-like” security guarantees to Ukraine by Europe and the U.S., the likelihood of a mutually acceptable deal between Russia and Ukraine remains low heading into 2026, in our view.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s increasingly vocal threats to assume control over Greenland, a territory belonging to U.S. NATO ally Denmark, could present an unprecedented challenge to NATO’s cohesion. Given the enormous implications for the Western post-World War II security architecture, any escalation on that front has the potential to become disruptive for markets that have been largely immune to geopolitical shocks throughout 2025.
In Mexico, we foresee continuity in President Claudia Sheinbaum’s pragmatic and constructive approach to U.S. relations, characterized by cooperation on security and measured concessions on trade and investment, particularly with respect to China. While the forthcoming USMCA renewal is likely to generate headlines, volatility, and potential spillovers into 2027 – including speculation around bilateral arrangements – we believe Mexico remains well positioned to preserve its tariff and competitive advantages.
In Argentina, we expect President Javier Milei to maintain close political alignment with the U.S. and to manage upcoming debt maturities effectively, as investors focus on reserve accumulation under the revised foreign-exchange framework.
The Middle East experienced relative calm in 4Q 2025, as the fragile Gaza ceasefire held. Following the U.S. incursion into Venezuela, protests in Iran have fueled speculation about renewed Israeli or U.S. actions aimed at pressuring the Iranian regime, as noted above. Absent significant attacks on oil infrastructure, however, we expect oil prices to remain subdued, supported by baseline supply conditions and upside risks from Venezuelan normalization.
On the electoral front, 2026 will see key votes in Peru, Colombia, Brazil, Hungary, and Thailand, among others. Snap parliamentary elections in Thailand and congressional elections and presidential primaries in Colombia will take place during the first quarter. Both elections will be closely monitored by investors. In Thailand, markets will be on the lookout for signs that traditional political risk could be fading, and in Colombia, they will be focused on a possible rightward political shift. Colombia, the traditionally close U.S. ally bordering Venezuela, has become estranged under its outgoing, leftist president, Gustavo Petro.
Investment Strategy Review and Outlook
The start of 2026 is defined by a global macro landscape that is notably more heterogeneous than in previous cycles, shaped by an unusual degree of scenario dispersion and persistent uncertainty around the trajectory of the U.S. economy. While headline growth in the U.S. remains resilient, supported by ongoing AI driven capital investment and a still buoyant higher income consumer, the underlying dynamics reveal widening distributional gaps, softer labor market signals, and inflation that remains above target. These factors have reinforced investor attention to the Fed’s shifting reaction function and the implications of a more dovish stance against a backdrop of rising fiscal deficits and political pressures that contribute to steepening curves. Outside the U.S., policy and growth outcomes are diverging meaningfully across developed markets. Europe continues to face structural stagnation and heightened political uncertainty, while China is managing a difficult but controlled transition toward a more balanced growth model through targeted, incremental stimulus. These crosscurrents are embedding greater differentiation into global asset performance and shaping a more selective investment environment heading into the first quarter.
In this context, investors must reconcile the constructive elements of the central scenario with the elevated weight of tail risks that have become increasingly relevant. Bond market sensitivity to U.S. fiscal dynamics, geopolitical tensions across multiple regions, and the possibility of policy errors – whether through tariff volatility, unorthodox monetary experimentation, or political interference in independent institutions – create the potential for sudden bouts of volatility even without a recession. This environment argues for a continuation of the resilience-focused approach that proved essential in 2025: balancing exposures across high-quality credit, seeking carry where fundamentals remain robust, and maintaining the flexibility to adjust positioning as macro and policy signals evolve. Despite the complexities, the global opportunity set remains appealing for investors who can differentiate by region, sector, and credit profile. Against this backdrop, emerging markets continue to stand out as relative beneficiaries of strong real yields, improved policy credibility, and a constructive technical picture, especially when compared to the erosion of institutional quality and fiscal discipline across many developed markets.
Looking ahead to the first quarter, our base case anticipates that a combination of modest global disinflation, ongoing policy accommodation in the U.S., and still-healthy emerging market macro fundamentals will provide a supportive environment for risk assets, albeit one punctuated by volatility tied to political and policy developments. In our view, the ability to balance carry generation with thoughtful risk management, while maintaining a disciplined focus on bottom-up fundamentals, will be crucial as investors navigate a macro landscape where the center remains constructive, but the tails demand respect.
Multi-Asset
Gramercy’s Multi-Asset strategy continued to navigate a complex backdrop in Q4. Investors generally retained a constructive stance toward yield-bearing assets, and the strategy delivered steady performance. As we look ahead to the first quarter of 2026, we remain focused on maintaining balanced risk exposure, as well as emphasizing high-conviction themes and disciplined underwriting.
The private credit sleeve was a steady contributor to the broader multi-asset strategy at the end of the year, supported by disciplined deployment and continued progress across several existing borrowers. For example, the strategy extended additional capital to a diversified metals producer in Latin America undergoing a meaningful turnaround. Elsewhere, the Private Credit team added to a senior secured facility for a leading content and entertainment platform operating in Türkiye that has resilient audience demand and stable cash flows. The incremental tranche reflected sustained performance throughout the year.
In private credit in 2026, we expect continued progress toward monetization and remain focused on secured lending opportunities, where improving fundamentals and structural protections drive attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Special situations also produced a meaningful contribution in Q4. The Venezuelan ICSID strategy advanced across several key procedural steps, including continued insurance recovery efforts on one claim and the initiation of an annulment process for another. Public markets experienced a particularly sharp rally as investors increasingly priced in long-dated restructuring and recovery scenarios for the country. In special situations, we anticipate further procedural milestones and potential valuation catalysts across our existing claims.
The opportunistic equity portion of the multi-asset strategy was selectively active, centering on two idiosyncratic positions. First, within Latin American energy and infrastructure, a corporate reorganization progressed to separate, higher multiple assets from more cyclical upstream operations. Second, opportunistic equity initiated an investment that provides meaningful ownership in an AI infrastructure and managed services platform, acquired at an early valuation alongside a well-capitalized data-center partner. In 2026, we will continue to evaluate dislocations and catalysts where revenue visibility and operational improvements support upside.
Across the opportunistic public credit sleeve, deployment remained measured, consistent with our focus on catalysts, operational progress, and governance-driven value creation, rather than broad market beta.
In October, the broader multi-asset strategy initiated a tactical position in Argentina sovereign bonds ahead of the country’s midterm elections. With markets responding strongly to the outcome and bonds rallying, the team exited the position after achieving its targeted return. The combination of realized gains in Argentina and opportunistic sizing in Venezuela shaped a constructive Q4. This year, opportunistic public credit will continue to focus on opportunities where structural change, improvement in asset quality, or revenue visibility can drive returns.
Lastly, the performing public credit portion of the strategy experienced a mixed quarter. Local currency sovereign bonds were a notable source of volatility, as renewed U.S. dollar strength and uneven macro data contributed to weaker returns in several countries. Meanwhile, selection effects within both investment-grade and high-yield corporates created pockets of temporary softness, driven more by specific events than by a deterioration in fundamentals. In 2026, we expect this credit dispersion to remain elevated across emerging markets, reinforcing the need for disciplined security selection and tactical positioning.
Despite some headwinds, underlying credit quality across the strategy remained broadly stable. We believe the multi-asset strategy is appropriately balanced across public and private exposures as we head into 2026.
Capital Solutions
Emerging markets continue to operate within a fluid global landscape shaped by U.S. trade policy, global capital flows, and a macro outlook for 2026 that can be characterized as multi-modal, as discussed above.
For emerging markets, we have noted that the upside scenario would be productivity gains from AI and automation in developed markets. Downside risks are concentrated in global financial conditions, especially the risk of bond-market volatility. A disorderly tightening in global liquidity could pressure EM currencies and raise funding costs. These risks could be amplified by policy missteps and political uncertainty, reinforcing the importance of disciplined macro management and defensive portfolio construction.
Underscoring the growing relevance of private credit in emerging markets, primary-issuance activity slowed toward year-end; high-yield issuance declined by 25% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, according to BondRadar. This diminishing access to capital markets has led companies to increasingly prioritize dollar-denominated financing through private lending, in order to mitigate local-currency pressures and capitalize on selective credit windows. It is a trend we expect to continue into the first quarter of the year.
The year-to-date appreciation of local currencies across emerging markets has improved borrowers’ ability to access dollar-based financing. At the same time, high local interest rates have increased domestic funding costs, further encouraging companies with natural dollar cash flows to pursue dollar-denominated financing. In the first half of 2026, local macro dynamics will be influenced by election cycles, which may introduce volatility and constrain bank lending – again highlighting the relevance of private credit alternatives.
Our dollar-based exposure remains protected from foreign-exchange volatility. It also has limited exposure to U.S. trade policy, reflecting our disciplined investment framework. Select jurisdictions continue to offer attractive opportunities when approached with a nimble, short-duration focus.
Latin America has emerged as a clear relative winner despite the uncertain trade environment and remains a priority investment market.
Mexico, which represents the largest country exposure in our diversified strategy, stands out. Economic activity has proven resilient, and the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum continues to advance initiatives to support Pemex’s financial position, while also incentivizing private investment. These dynamics support both sovereign and corporate credit performance. Her pragmatic stance on U.S. relations, combined with domestic resilience, reinforces Mexico’s role as a nearshoring hub. Our exposure in Mexico currently focuses on industrial real estate, power generation, digital infrastructure, and SME lending – all of which are poised to benefit from evolving trade dynamics.
Brazil enters the year with trade pressures largely contained and a stable, domestic macro backdrop. While U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods increased to 50%, exemptions reduce the effective burden closer to 30%. With only 12% of exports directed to the U.S., broader spillovers should remain manageable. Our strategy in Brazil remains focused on low-volatility sectors, dollar-based lending, diversified commodity exposure (excluding volatile grains), and collateral-backed structures for blue-chip borrowers.
Across the rest of Latin America, we continue to identify attractive opportunities in select industries. In Peru, our SME platform holds a diversified basket of short-duration loans that are primarily linked to exporters and Asian counterparties in the mining sector. In Colombia, the pension payroll platform remains one of our top cashflow generating assets, supported by strong overcollateralization and currency hedging, while also delivering positive social impact through responsible lending to underserved communities. Chile continues to move in the right direction, reflected in our constructive view and recent transactions, as we actively evaluate opportunities across real estate, industrials, and mining services. In Costa Rica, we are pursuing real estate opportunities driven by U.S. second-home demand.
Türkiye continues to present attractive opportunities, supported by high local interest rates and stable dollar revenues from key corporates. Most export-oriented borrowers are focused on Europe rather than the U.S., mitigating U.S. tariff-related risks. Our platform supports companies pursuing liability optimization strategies and maintaining low leverage.
Overall, Capital Solutions deployed approximately $340 million during the fourth quarter through a mix of new investments, loan upsizes, and platform financings. Deployments were diversified across sectors, including agribusiness, real estate, financial services, logistics, industrials, energy, oil and gas, and hospitality, and across geographies, including Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Angola, Türkiye, and Costa Rica. At quarter-end, outstanding commitments exceeded $250 million, alongside a strong pipeline of more than $500 million in advanced due diligence and over $1 billion in early-stage opportunities. This pipeline includes opportunities in the real estate, financial services, agribusiness, oil, healthcare, and transportation sectors.
Overall, Capital Solutions’ approach remains guided by a defensive, multi-layered strategy, with dollar-denominated lending and flexible allocations that provide resilience against volatility.
Emerging Markets Debt
Emerging markets debt enters 2026 from a position of renewed strength following one of the most constructive years for the asset class in several years. Local currency markets were the strongest performer across EM fixed income in 2025, benefiting from broadening disinflation, elevated real rate buffers, and a meaningful softening of the dollar that occurred primarily in the first half of the year, particularly during the second quarter. As inflation eased across major emerging market economies and policy credibility strengthened, local currency sovereign bonds produced the most compelling blend of carry, duration return, and currency support. Hard-currency sovereigns and corporates also posted solid gains, supported by post-reform progress in high-yield issuers and stable fundamentals among investment-grade corporates. Still, the defining feature of the year was the breadth and consistency of outperformance in local markets, which decisively exceeded returns across other emerging markets segments.
As we enter the first quarter of 2026, EM debt benefits from a favorable alignment of cyclical support, structural improvement, and cleaner technicals. Emerging market central banks, having tightened policy well ahead of developed market counterparts, are increasingly positioned to continue measured easing cycles, reinforcing the supportive backdrop for local curves. Real yields across many large emerging economies remain among the highest globally, providing insulation against external volatility and strengthening the case for both duration and foreign-exchange exposure. Fundamentals continue to improve relative to developed markets, with stronger balance sheets, healthier external positions, and an ongoing upgrade cycle. Meanwhile, positioning remains light after several years of under-allocation, and issuance patterns continue to favor a constructive balance of supply and demand. Together, these dynamics provide EM fixed income with a compelling foundation as the year begins.
Against this setting, we expect local markets to continue serving as a cornerstone of emerging markets performance in the first quarter of 2026, supported by declining inflation, credible policy frameworks, the lingering effects of earlier dollar softness, and continued Fed easing. Meanwhile, opportunities across hard-currency sovereign and corporate credit remain attractive, particularly in reform-aligned or post-restructuring credits where idiosyncratic catalysts can anchor repricing. Yet, as global policy signals remain fluid and geopolitical pressures persist, the ability to balance carry generation with disciplined risk management and bottom-up differentiation will be critical. With one of the strongest starting points in several years and a favorable relative value profile compared to developed markets, EM debt is well-positioned to deliver competitive risk-adjusted returns in an environment that rewards both resilience and selectivity.
Special Situations
The Special Situations team remains focused on effectively managing and monetizing our existing assets in emerging markets, including in Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Argentina, Venezuela, and Puerto Rico, as well as in developed markets such as the U.S. and the UK.
In Q3 2024, the team entered into a supplemental facility with Pogust Goodhead to provide the prominent plaintiffs’ law firm with working capital to support its portfolio of environmental matters in Brazil. They include litigation against BHP and Vale arising from the 2015 Samarco/Mariana dam collapse. Most recently, on Nov. 11, 2025, Pogust Goodhead received notice of a favorable U.K. court ruling on the issues tried during the BHP Liability Trial, which ran from October 2024 to March 2025. The court found BHP liable for the Mariana dam collapse, materially de-risking the supplemental facility.
Across the litigation finance sector, we continue to identify compelling opportunities in secondary transactions involving legal assets, law firm portfolio financing, and claim funding. As in prior periods, we seek to structure these transactions with insurance solutions to mitigate downside risk. In parallel, our established network across the U.S., Europe, and Latin America continues to generate attractive opportunities outside of litigation finance that offer strong return potential alongside robust credit protections, including proprietary insurance structures, completion guarantees, and other credit enhancements.
Beyond litigation finance, we remain focused on potential digital infrastructure opportunities, especially given the multi-year lack of supply of AI data center capacity across the U.S. In line with this theme, we have executed agreements providing for up to 455 megawatts of power with one of the nation’s largest power producers, along with ground leases to jointly locate modular-built data centers adjacent to their existing electrical infrastructure. We believe the demand for corporate AI is strong and data sovereignty and privacy will become a key theme in 2026, creating an opportunity to significantly scale capital deployment in this strategy.
Conclusion
As we look ahead into 2026, we remain mindful that the global investment landscape is defined by both opportunity and complexity. It is this complexity – shaped by the interplay of robust U.S. growth, evolving policy dynamics, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty – that introduces the possibility of bouts of volatility. In this context, resilience, flexibility, and disciplined risk management are essential for navigating the path forward.
Emerging markets, anchored by strong fundamentals, credible policy frameworks, and attractive valuations, are well positioned to deliver compelling risk-adjusted returns – particularly for investors who can differentiate by region, sector, and credit profile. We will continue to test our baseline assumptions against evolving developments, maintaining a selective and dynamic approach. We remain confident that “A Better Approach to Emerging Markets®” – grounded in rigorous analysis, active differentiation, and a steadfast focus on risk – will allow us to capture opportunities and navigate challenges that may arise in the months and year ahead.
January 14, 2026
Authored by:
Robert Koenigsberger, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chair
Petar Atanasov, Director & Co-Head of Sovereign Research
Kathryn Exum, Director & Co-Head of Sovereign Research
About Gramercy
Gramercy is a global emerging markets alternatives investment manager with offices in West Palm Beach, Greenwich, London, Buenos Aires, Miami, and Mexico City and dedicated lending platforms in Mexico, Türkiye, Peru, Pan-Africa and Brazil. The $7 billion firm, founded in 1998, seeks to provide investors with a better approach to emerging markets, delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns supported by a transparent and robust institutional platform. Gramercy offers alternative and long-only strategies across emerging markets asset classes, including multi-asset, direct lending, EM debt and special situations. Gramercy’s mission is to positively impact the well-being of our clients, portfolio investments, and team members. Gramercy is a Registered Investment Adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a Signatory of the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI). Gramercy Ltd, an affiliate, is registered with the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
Contact Information:
Gramercy Funds Management LLC
Phone: +1 203 552 1900
www.gramercy.com
Sara Schaefer Muñoz
Managing Director, Head of Content and Communications
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