Authored by:
Robert Koenigsberger, Managing Partner & Chief Investment Officer
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chair
Petar Atanasov, Director & Co-Head of Sovereign Research
Kathryn Exum, Director & Co-Head of Sovereign Research
October 8, 2025
Quarterly Outlook 4Q 2025
Decoding the Global Macro Environment
The third quarter of 2025 was highly favorable for investors as equity markets continued their bounce from the April low to new records: gold registered new highs, credit spreads tightened, and U.S. Treasury yields generally moderated in September. This was enabled by a U.S. economy that grew faster than the consensus forecast and is expected to be a major beneficiary of the AI revolution. The third quarter also saw generally contained inflation – despite the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure remaining above its 2% target – and the Fed restarting a cutting cycle with the first reduction of 2025.
Beneath the surface of this strong performance, several intriguing policy and market developments unfolded.
Solid U.S. growth was accompanied by further departures in economic policy implementation from long-accepted norms. The Trump administration ventured deeper and more explicitly into industrial policy, intensified its attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, and extended the weaponization of trade policy to include secondary tariffs (e.g. the new levies currently applied to India for its oil imports from Russia).
In the face of this political and policy volatility:
-
- The U.S. dollar struggled to rally significantly from its earlier lows.
- Foreign investors increasingly hedged their currency exposure even as they sought U.S. corporate risk through the equity and bond markets.
- The yield curve steepened until the U.S. administration announced its intention to “bend the curve” through policy actions.
Outside the U.S., bond markets differentiated between sovereigns viewed as having control over their fiscal outlook and those facing political constraints to budgetary adjustment. This differentiation was particularly evident in France, where concerns over political deadlock and budgetary discipline were significant enough that some high-quality corporate bond spreads began trading inside the widening sovereign spread. This was an unusual sign that investors viewed corporate credit as less risky than government debt. In the UK, government bond yields continued to settle at uncomfortably elevated levels, raising concerns about longer-term debt sustainability.
The emerging world saw a generalized return of investor interest that boosted asset prices across the board – including dollar-denominated bonds, local currency securities, currencies, and equities. However, this general trend masked significant volatility in specific countries, such as Argentina and Ecuador, which experienced domestic political and economic challenges.
This third-quarter configuration sets up a critical question for the fourth quarter: Will markets continue to rally despite rich valuations, as investors increasingly bet on the upside of productivity gains from AI and deregulation and as technical factors remain favorable (e.g., the potential deployment of considerable cash held in money market accounts)? Or will historically elevated valuations finally result in markets pausing while increasingly differentiating among credits and assets?
On the assumption that the government shutdown that started on October 1st is resolved relatively quickly, the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession and is generally able to contain the tariff pass-through into inflation. Yet a good part of the answer for markets lies with how U.S. policy-induced volatility evolves. We will monitor the potential for further policy-induced volatility such as:
-
- Additional tariffs, including the possible extension of secondary levies to China
- The expansion of industrial policy
- Fiscal developments
- Interventions in the actual and future operation of the Federal Reserve
The outlook is inherently difficult to predict with a high level of conviction. In such an environment, resilience will underpin portfolio allocation, as will opportunistic positioning in what is expected to be a volatile price environment. Such positioning will require a blend of careful bottom-up assessments and judgment on the importance of these findings relative to top-down macroeconomic and policy factors.
Resilient Global Environment Faces Lingering Uncertainty
Growth Remains Steady in Key Economies
Global growth has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite the hikes in U.S. tariff rates. The market consensus for 2025 global GDP growth stands at 2.8%, a mere 10bps below last year’s growth rate. The OECD’s September Interim report estimates world real GDP at 3.2%, up 30bps from its June assessment, and global PMI output has increased to 52.9, a rise of 1.2 points since June. We anticipate that global growth will remain relatively well-supported in the coming quarter, assuming that any downside risks posed by a faster-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy, or financial market volatility, are kept at bay.
In the U.S., our base case envisions softer growth as the economy further adjusts to higher tariffs amid persistent but manageable inflation. Labor market uncertainty keeps recession possible, though not the base case. Upside risks are underpinned by supportive policy and financial conditions, a still buoyant high-end consumer, and tailwinds from artificial intelligence investment and adoption. On the trade front, we see some potential legal headwinds to the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) but still expect overall tariff levels to remain high. At the same time, additional sectoral tariffs may be announced and new details around country-specific tariff frameworks could emerge.
Europe’s moderate growth momentum can continue in the quarter ahead, albeit with room for further divergence among major economies. For example, we see increased fiscal spending underway in Germany and headwinds in France amid political volatility.
In China, external sector resilience will likely ebb in 4Q, with early indications of declining purchasing orders ahead of the U.S. holiday season. While consumption and the real estate sector remain structurally weak, we expect authorities to deploy incremental stimulus as needed to provide a floor under growth, particularly in the context of recent softness in retail sales, industrial production, and real estate data. We think the Chinese central bank, (PBOC), will use rate cuts selectively, with a greater possibility for adjustment in the reserve requirement ratio rather than in the policy rate.
In the rest of emerging markets, we expect activity to remain well-anchored in the context of supportive domestic and external policy conditions, with underlying differentiation at the country, sector, and company levels.
Shifting Monetary Policy Signals
We expect investor sentiment on emerging markets in the last quarter of 2025 to be driven largely by expectations of the speed and scale of the Fed’s interest rate cuts. Concerned about weakness in the labor market, the FOMC lowered its policy rate by 25bps to 4.25% in September and markets currently price in close to another 50bps of easing in 4Q, despite lingering inflation risks and uncertainty.
All else being equal, easing financing conditions in developed markets tend to catalyze a supportive environment for emerging market assets from a top-down global macro perspective. However, if current consensus expectations about additional policy easing are reversed by hawkish Fed communication, riskier asset classes, including EM, could be subject to volatility in the upcoming quarter. The main risk comes from inflation in the U.S., where lagging effects of the Trump administration’s unconventional economic policies could trigger a “stagflation-lite” environment. This could derail markets’ optimism about monetary stimulus.
Emerging markets enter 4Q from a position of strength. The asset class delivered one of the strongest year-to-date performances in years and attracted billions in inflows. As a result, they should be well-positioned to withstand any potential Fed-induced volatility. Additionally, market concerns about potential erosion of Fed independence and policy credibility, amid constant pressure by the White House for lower interest rates, will be another important factor influencing investor decisions. We think it is also likely to work in favor of emerging markets, which have stood out as relative winners in the context of institutional and fundamental quality erosion in developed markets.
We continue to see a benign backdrop for emerging markets investing unless the U.S. inflation outlook triggers material repricing of the Fed’s rate path expectations – a risk we will be monitoring very closely. Amid structural headwinds to the U.S. dollar and our strong conviction about a soft dollar environment, we expect EM foreign exchange and local currency debt to remain our favorite sovereign opportunities in the fourth quarter.
However, global economic uncertainty lingers. This overall weaker growth outlook is likely to continue anchoring lower inflationary pressures in emerging economies, more of which are likely to see inflation returning to central banks’ target ranges. Lower growth and disinflation, along with Fed cuts, leave the door open for further monetary easing in EM, supporting duration in local curves. On the hard currency front, amid tight spread levels, we expect to continue favoring idiosyncratic stories with clear repricing triggers, such as elections or other political events, which could anchor constructive economic policy shifts.
Fluid Geopolitical Landscape Amid Rise of Government Influence
In Europe, the focus will be on mounting tensions between NATO and Russia on the alliance’s eastern flank. These tensions became more visible at the end of last quarter amid multiple incidents involving Russian violations of NATO airspace. European diplomats have warned the Kremlin that NATO is ready to respond to further violations with “full force,” including the shooting down of Russian aircraft. This measure was also suggested by President Trump during the UN General Assembly session in late September. Such a scenario would represent an unprecedented post-Cold War military escalation in the challenging NATO-Russia relationship, with potentially meaningful reverberations across global economies and markets.
In terms of the ongoing war in Ukraine, we maintain our long-standing, strong conviction that any sort of ceasefire or peace deal is a low-probability scenario. In our Q3 Outlook, we expressed our pessimism around active diplomatic efforts by the White House to end the conflict, despite the broader market’s enthusiasm. The lack of progress since then, and recent developments that signal the Trump administration’s intention to distance itself from the issue, have further reinforced our view. As such, we remain of the opinion that conditions to pause, let alone settle, the conflict do not yet exist. As a result, we believe this situation makes a constructive medium-term outlook for Ukraine’s economy and sovereign credit story unlikely.
In China, the main market-relevant geopolitical event in the fourth quarter will be the meeting of President Trump with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea at the end of October. This follows a relatively constructive Trump-Xi phone call last quarter, during which they discussed TikTok and trade. We do not rule out non-tariff threats or measures from both sides during the fourth quarter, which could be used to boost leverage ahead of the October session or the expiration of the 90-day trade truce in November. Our base case assumes at least an extension of the truce – and possible building blocks to a more durable deal into 2026.
Turning to Latin America, we expect Mexico to continue its constructive approach to U.S. relations, particularly on security and trade, as attention shifts toward the forthcoming USMCA renewal process. On U.S.-Venezuela relations, we see room for further U.S. military pressure and counter-narcotics strikes in international waters, and do not rule out strikes within Venezuelan territory to pressure the Maduro regime. In Argentina, we expect the mid-term elections on October 26th to drive volatility in bonds and the currency market, despite recent pledges of U.S. support. Investors will watch for swift policy adjustment and political coalition building in the aftermath.
In the Middle East, a tenuous ceasefire appears closer in the context of the latest peace proposal although we still expect bouts of re-escalation and volatility. Israel, with the backing of the U.S., will likely exert greater pressure on Iran alongside the return of ‘’snapback’ UN sanctions due to the lack of oversight of Iran’s nuclear program. The regional economies that are most vulnerable to macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan, are likely to continue benefiting from robust multilateral and regional support. This will provide a buffer against pronounced balance of payments challenges.
Investment Strategy Review and Outlook
Amid robust performance and increased flows into emerging markets in the third quarter, Gramercy continued to utilize the power of “A Better Approach to Emerging Markets®” on behalf of our investors.
The Fed’s widely anticipated September rate cut further accelerated flows, with investors seeking out yields and diversification relative to the dollar despite the uncertain global macroeconomic backdrop and geopolitical pressures. This has boosted local rates, currencies, and USD-denominated bonds, especially at the long end of the curve, remaining a positive development for emerging markets as long as the U.S. economy remains resilient.
Many emerging markets have strengthened their policy frameworks, improved fiscal management, and demonstrated resilience through recent global shocks. In contrast, developed markets are now exhibiting greater policy and political uncertainty – factors that do not yet seem to be fully priced into valuations.
Gramercy has remained steadfast in its investment approach in EM, with tactical asset allocation to high conviction return streams. This strategy has proven especially valuable in the uncertain global markets of recent quarters, with a “barbell” approach balancing yield from high-conviction private and public credit with more asymmetric opportunistic credit and special situations exposure. This allows investors to capture the upside while minimizing the possibility of non-recoverable mistakes.
Looking ahead, we believe emerging markets remain well positioned to deliver compelling risk-adjusted returns. With yields still sitting in the upper quartile of their historical range and developed markets at historically tight levels, technicals remain supportive amid continued global investor under-allocation to the asset class. If the macro backdrop evolves in line with expectations – namely a stable or weakening dollar and a global rate cutting cycle – these conditions could provide a favorable environment not seen in over a decade. In such a scenario, both public and private portfolios in emerging markets are likely to benefit from stronger inflows and a re-rating of risk premia.
Multi-Asset
Despite volatility remaining elevated and markets wrestling with monetary policy, high-conviction yield across public and private credit allowed the strategy to mark 12 consecutive quarters of meeting or exceeding investor expectations.
The public credit markets were characterized by very tight spreads and strong technical demand, as issuance cooled and quality credits commanded premium valuations. This trend surfaced even while investors remained alert to macro and interest rate risks. The strategy benefitted from spread compression and carry in hard currency sovereign and corporate debt, which outperformed EM local sovereign debt despite foreign-exchange tailwinds.
In Private Credit, the strategy fully monetized a loan to a Brazilian energy infrastructure and technology company operating a global portfolio of floating production, storage, and off-loading systems (FPSOs). Gramercy had participated in a $230 million secured holding company financing in 2023 for the construction and operation of an FPSO, which was fully contracted. The company recently issued a $1.2 billion project bond for the FPSO and used part of the proceeds to prepay our financing in full, achieving a very attractive investor rate of return and multiple on invested capital. In Opportunistic Credit/Equity, the strategy fully monetized its position in Ecuador sovereign bonds following the post-election strength. As noted in last quarter’s commentary, the bonds were priced at a worst-case scenario ahead of the election, creating a favorable asymmetry. Our thesis of a presidential win for Daniel Noboa played out as expected, and we took advantage of the rally to realize gains. By the end of Q3, we had exited the position in full. For reference, the 2030s hit a low of 54 cents in April and a high of 93 cents in September.
A Turkish ride-share service was the largest detractor this quarter. In July, shares fell over 20% as markets reacted cautiously to the company’s decision to allocate 20% of its cash reserves into crypto assets, a move we viewed as a reasonable hedge given the Turkish lira’s continued weakness. However, fundamentals continued their upward trajectory in August, with the company surpassing Q3 ride-hailing targets well ahead of schedule. The group now boasts 2.52 million riders and 357,000 registered drivers, with meaningful growth outside Istanbul, highlighting successful geographic expansion. The company’s upward revision of year-end targets further strengthens our conviction in its market leadership and growth path.
In August, the Opportunistic strategy initiated two new positions. In Brazil’s largest chemical company, we are taking advantage of the market dislocation driven by sector pressure and temporary uncertainty around the company’s shareholder structure. We were able to build the position at very attractive levels, which we believe are below the long-term recovery value of the business. The second position was in a refinery in Brazil. The investment is supported by the company’s strong operational turnaround since 2025, with room for continued improvement in crack spreads and tax monetization. Despite a challenging environment for global crack margins, the company has successfully reduced costs, improved its product mix, and secured additional sources of liquidity, all of which have strengthened its credit profile.
In Special Situations, the strategy continues to make progress in existing positions and we are in advanced due diligence on an interesting opportunity.
The global hedge strategy continues to have no position. However, with spreads historically tight, we are evaluating a tactical hedge into the year’s end.
We continue to see volatility in 2025, with markets navigating a growing list of macro stressors this year, including tariff escalations, geopolitical tensions, and persistent monetary policy uncertainty. Through it all, our absolute return strategy has remained resilient, delivering meaningful results in the face of mounting disruption and unknowns. The strategy continues to expand, driven by both performance and rising client interest. With continued potential monetizations on the horizon and a robust pipeline driving momentum, we believe the strategy is well-positioned to close out the year from a position of strength.
Capital Solutions
Emerging markets continue to operate within a fluid and shifting landscape shaped by U.S. trade policies and the reallocation of global capital flows. Tariff escalations against Brazil and select Asian partners have redrawn the trade map, while Latin America has benefited from a comparatively lighter tariff burden. These adjustments, though disruptive, underscore the adaptability of emerging economies and reinforce the case for diversified, USD-based investment strategies. Currency volatility and tighter macro conditions remain, but the resilience of select markets has kept investor interest strong.
Looking ahead, two broad scenarios dominate. In one, tariff revenues for the U.S. partially offset widening fiscal deficits, sustaining growth but pushing inflation on consumer goods higher and keeping the yield curve steep despite monetary easing. On the other hand, a U.S recession emerges, with slowing growth and services inflation offset by tariff-driven goods price increases. In this case, deficits would outpace tariff revenues, but the curve would still avoid inversion. Both scenarios suggest continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, particularly against higher-yielding emerging economies with disciplined central banks and resilient growth profiles. This means Latin America remains well-positioned.
Highlighting the increased interest and activity in the region, emerging market high-yield corporate primary issuances rose by 40% in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024, according to BondRadar. Companies continued to prioritize USD-denominated financing to mitigate local currency pressures and take advantage of selective windows in credit markets, underscoring the financing trends we have seen throughout the year. By September 2025, total high-yield issuance reached approximately $26 billion for the quarter, reflecting steady demand from both issuers and investors despite broader macro volatility.
Our USD-based portfolio remains protected from foreign-exchange volatility, with less than 4% direct exposure to export revenues that are likely impacted by U.S. tariff increases. This defensive positioning is the result of our disciplined investment framework that emphasizes downside protection, short-duration credit exposure, and flexible allocation across resilient sectors. While policy uncertainty remains high – especially given the competing U.S. narratives on trade – certain jurisdictions continue to offer attractive investment opportunities.
Mexico, which represents the largest country exposure in our diversified portfolio, stands out as a relative bright spot: fiscal accounts are strong, economic activity is exceeding expectations, and the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum continues to advance plans for making Pemex more self-sufficient. These factors have supported both sovereign and corporate credit performance. Internationally, Mexico and Canada are preparing a bilateral approach ahead of the 2026 USMCA review, with President Sheinbaum expected to align closely with U.S. policy. Her pragmatic stance on U.S. relations, coupled with domestic economic momentum, reinforces Mexico’s role as a nearshoring hub. Our portfolio in Mexico focuses on industrial real estate near the U.S. border, SME lending for supply chain integration, and infrastructure linked to logistics and energy resilience. All of these areas are expected to benefit from evolving trade dynamics.
Brazil continues to balance external trade challenges with supportive domestic policy. In July, U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods rose to 50%, though exemptions brought the effective burden closer to 30%. With only 12% of exports bound for the U.S. and trade representing just 35% of GDP, the macro impact should be contained. The central bank’s 15% policy rate continues to anchor currency strength and inflation control. Our strategy emphasizes low-volatility sectors, USD-based lending to corporates navigating high rates, diversified commodity exposures (excluding volatile grains), and collateral-backed structures for blue-chip borrowers. This approach manages inflationary risks while capturing opportunities from corporates seeking cross-border financing with USD assets.
In the rest of Latin America, the appreciation of local currencies has strengthened borrowers’ ability to expand their access to USD-based financing. In Peru, our SME platform holds a diversified portfolio of short-duration loans tied mainly to exporters and Asian clients on the mining side, shielding it from U.S. tariff risk. In Colombia, the pension payroll platform remains one of our top cashflow–generating assets, backed by strong overcollateralization and currency hedging. It also offers a socially responsible aspect in that it extends financing to underserved communities under responsible lending standards. In Costa Rica, we are pursuing real estate opportunities driven by U.S. second-home demand, secured by strong collateral packages with investment-grade counterparties.
Türkiye continues to present attractive opportunities, driven by high local rates and stable USD revenues in key corporates. Most export-oriented borrowers are focused on Europe rather than the U.S., mitigating tariff risk. Our platform supports companies with liability optimization strategies and low leverage, offering exposure to strong private credit opportunities amid a still-fragile macroeconomic backdrop.
Across emerging markets, our approach continues to be guided by a defensive, multi-layered strategy. USD lending, combined with flexible allocations in short-duration assets, provides an additional layer of resilience against volatility. In the context of a rapidly evolving trade environment, Latin America has emerged as one of the clear beneficiaries and remains a priority investment market.
Overall, Capital Solutions deployed approximately $180 million in the third quarter, through a mix of new deals, loan-upsizes, and platform loans. These were diversified across sectors such as real estate, logistics, oil and gas, financial, industrial and hospitality. Geographically, our investments spanned Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Angola, and Costa Rica. At the end of the quarter, we had outstanding commitments in excess of $220 million, coupled with a strong pipeline of over $300 million in the advanced due diligence stage, with over $1 billion in early-stage deals.
This pipeline includes opportunities in real estate in Mexico and Costa Rica, financials in Colombia, Mexico, Central America and Eastern Europe, agribusiness in Brazil and Peru, environmental services in Chile, oil and gas in Mexico, Colombia and Africa, hospitality in Mexico, industrials in Türkiye, healthcare in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, mining in Peru and power in Mexico.
Emerging Markets Debt
Emerging market assets rallied in the third quarter, buoyed by the previously mentioned supportive global macro backdrop and growing confidence in the soft-landing narrative in the U.S.
A pivotal moment came in September when the Fed delivered a 25bps rate cut, the first under the new U.S. administration, cementing expectations of a gradual easing cycle. While core inflation remained above target in several developed markets, it stayed contained enough to allow central banks to hold rates steady. In China, the central bank maintained a cautious policy stance amid tentative signs of stabilization, while political uncertainty and trade tensions added new layers of complexity to an already fragile global landscape. Against this backdrop, investor appetite for EM risk strengthened, with inflows supported by a weaker dollar, record-high gold prices, and relative value in EM debt and foreign-exchange.
Within EM debt markets, hard currency sovereigns led the rally, driven by spread compression in the high-yield segment as risk appetite improved. EM corporates also posted strong gains, with both the investment-grade and high-yield segments benefiting from solid fundamentals and favorable technicals from crossover investor demand. Local currency debt underperformed in relative terms but still generated positive returns, supported by disinflation trends in several large markets and stabilizing foreign-exchange dynamics. While broad performance was robust, the quarter also saw continued dispersion at the country level, with idiosyncratic risks – from political transitions in Latin America to fiscal concerns in frontier markets – as key sources of volatility. Corporates were more insulated from these pressures, particularly in sectors and issuers with strong balance sheets and limited refinancing needs.
Looking ahead, we expect macro conditions to remain fluid. Sticky inflation in parts of the developed world, combined with signs of slowing growth and rising political interference in monetary policy, suggests that volatility may pick up heading into year-end. The most likely outcome remains a “stagflation-lite” environment, where global growth moderates but inflation remains above target, favoring carry-focused strategies over broad beta compression. In this setting, bottom-up credit selection will be essential. We continue to see value in high-quality corporates and select local markets where real yields remain attractive and policy credibility is intact. At the same time, elevated valuations and persistent geopolitical uncertainty call for a more tactical approach, with a focus on liquidity, fundamentals, and technical drivers. This is particularly true as political risk and U.S. policy volatility remain front of mind for investors.
Special Situations
The Special Situations team continues to focus on the successful management and monetization of our existing portfolio of legal assets in emerging markets, including in Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Argentina, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, and in developed markets, including the U.S. and the UK.
Within the litigation finance sector, we continue to seek to identify compelling opportunities in secondary transactions involving legal assets, law firm portfolio loans, and claim funding. Consistent with our prior approach, we seek to structure these investments with insurance solutions designed to mitigate downside risk. In addition, through our established network across the U.S., Europe, and Latin America, we are evaluating a range of attractive opportunities outside of litigation finance. These transactions similarly offer strong return potential while incorporating robust downside protections, which include the application of our proprietary insurance capabilities, completion guarantees, and other credit enhancements.
Beyond our ongoing initiatives in litigation finance, we have directed attention to the pronounced imbalance in data center capacity across the U.S. In alignment with this theme, we are advancing investment discussions regarding a state-of-the-art, prefabricated data center project specifically designed to be fully AI-ready and deployable in under 12 months. By co-locating on the premises of a major energy company under a long-term power purchase agreement, the project can avoid the grid interconnection and power supply constraints that traditionally delay data center construction by three to five years. This innovative approach to digital infrastructure, supported by experienced vendors and well-capitalized strategic partners, is generating substantial interest from both prospective investors and enterprise clients.
Conclusion
As we look ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect continued strength in asset prices across the emerging world, which has stood out as the relative winner in the context of fundamental quality erosion in developed markets and diversification away from U.S. assets. In the U.S., the focus will be on resiliency to tariffs, possible further deterioration in the labor market, and increased threats to Fed independence.
We will continue to rigorously test baseline scenarios against actual developments and evolving prospects and maintain our careful vetting of securities. The majority of our investments are protected against downside risk with tight covenants and strong collateral on the private credit side and adherence to strong risk management principles on the public side, as the room for error has decreased with lower spreads. We will also continue to identify opportunities in this volatile environment through high carry, valuation overshoots, and changing relative values between and within major asset classes.
As we approach the close of 2025, we view emerging markets in a position of strength. For investors seeking to reduce concentration risk and better navigate an evolving global landscape, the asset class offers a broad, diverse, and increasingly stable opportunity set. We remain selective but confident in the long-term case for emerging markets across both public and private portfolios. Gramercy is ideally positioned to deliver strong results for the well-being of our clients utilizing the continued power of “A Better Approach to Emerging Markets®.”
About Gramercy
Gramercy is a global emerging markets alternatives investment manager with offices in West Palm Beach, Greenwich, London, Buenos Aires, Miami, and Mexico City and dedicated lending platforms in Mexico, Türkiye, Peru, Pan-Africa, Brazil, and Colombia. The $7 billion firm, founded in 1998, seeks to provide investors with a better approach to emerging markets, delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns supported by a transparent and robust institutional platform. Gramercy offers alternative and long-only strategies across emerging markets asset classes, including multi-asset, direct lending, EM debt and special situations. Gramercy’s mission is to positively impact the well-being of our clients, portfolio investments, and team members. Gramercy is a Registered Investment Adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a Signatory of the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI). Gramercy Ltd, an affiliate, is registered with the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
Contact Information:
Gramercy Funds Management LLC
Phone: +1 203 552 1900
www.gramercy.com
Sara Schaefer Muñoz
Managing Director, Head of Content and Communications
[email protected]
Investor Relations
[email protected]
This document is for informational purposes only, is not intended for public use or distribution and is for the sole use of the recipient. The information set forth herein and any opinions herein do not constitute an endorsement, implied or otherwise, of any securities, nor does it constitute an endorsement with respect to any investment area or vehicle. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments or any investment interest in any fund or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgement of Gramercy as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. All market prices, data and other information, are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice at the sole and absolute discretion of the Investment Manager. Gramercy has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or otherwise notify a reader hereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Certain statements made in this presentation are forward-looking and are subject to risks and uncertainties. The forward-looking statements made are based on our beliefs, assumptions and expectations of future performance, taking into account information currently available to us. Actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking statements made in this presentation. When we use the words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “will,” “intend” or other similar expressions, we are identifying forward-looking statements. These statements are based on information available to Gramercy as of the date hereof; and Gramercy’s actual results or actions could differ materially from those stated or implied, due to risks and uncertainties associated with its business. Unless otherwise stated, all representations in this presentation are Gramercy’s beliefs based on sector knowledge and/or research. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any reference to net returns reflect the deduction of management fees, carried interest, unconsummated transaction fees, professional fees, organizational fees and interest. Such fees and expenses will reduce returns to investors and in the aggregate, may be substantial. References to any indices are for informational and general comparative purposes only. There are significant differences between such indices and an investment program of Gramercy. A Gramercy Fund may not invest in all or necessarily any significant portion of the securities, industries, or strategies or represented by such indices. Indices are unmanaged, and their performance results do not reflect the impact of fees, expenses, or taxes that may be incurred through an investment with Gramercy. Returns for indices assume dividend reinvestment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Accordingly, comparing results shown to those of such indices may be of limited use. This presentation is strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, in any form or by any means. © 2025 Gramercy Funds Management LLC. All rights reserved.