Authored by:
Robert Koenigsberger, Managing Partner & Chief Investment Officer
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chair
Petar Atanasov, Director & Co-Head of Sovereign Research
Kathryn Exum, Director & Co-Head of Sovereign Research

July 16, 2025

Quarterly Outlook 3Q 2025

Decoding the Global Macro Environment

The start of the third quarter brings a familiar level of uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy, yet financial markets appear far less jittery than at the start of the prior quarter. While high-conviction predictions on tariffs are scarce, and understandably so, the immediate economic headwinds facing the U.S. have notably eased. This abatement is largely thanks to the passage of a significant fiscal stimulus bill, the structural robustness of the corporate sector, and the looming prospect of the first Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025.

However, this is no time to declare “all clear” for the world’s most systemically influential economy. Lower-income households are under strain, the inflation outlook remains highly fluid, the Federal Reserve is increasingly politicized, and many companies are holding back on large investments, stuck in “wait-and-see” mode. This, combined with yields that are more sensitive to unusually high debt and deficits, casts a long shadow over global growth and financial stability.

In this complex environment, three overarching questions merit consideration when considering top-down influences on investment strategies.

  1. Can markets continue to defy economic and financial uncertainties? Will they be solidly anchored by some combination of beliefs that (i) “markets are not the economy,” (ii) “corporates are not the sovereign,” (iii) technical factors, such as strong retail inflows, continue to be robust, (iv) the Federal Reserve is perceived to have ample space to ease financial conditions, and (v) the U.S. administration will ultimately avoid market-destabilizing tariffs?
  2. How quickly will the U.S. and global economies truly benefit from the widespread diffusion of productivity-enhancing innovations? Also, how front-loaded will corporate reactions be to the new corporate incentives embedded in the “Big, Beautiful Bill” and the impact of the significant deregulation promised by the U.S. administration?
  3. How resilient are the long-standing structural offsets against further dollar weakness and steeper yield curves for government bonds? After all, residents are less prone to currency substitutions, foreign holders have limited options, and the carry offered by government bonds is the best it’s been for quite a while.

The first two questions are inherently complex, signaling potential for continued market volatility and the need for highly agile portfolio management, with a larger-than-usual dose of tactical considerations. The third, meanwhile, highlights the potential for still-attractive secular investment opportunities in several segments of emerging markets.

Gramercy’s CIO and Managing Partner, Robert Koenigsberger, wrote for the Financial Times on investing in emerging markets amid global volatility. Read here.

World Adjusting to Uncertainty 

At the start of the second quarter, the global economic landscape was buffeted by a surge in trade tensions, with a complex web of higher U.S. tariffs acting as a catalyst for heightened volatility and a notable reassessment of global growth prospects. Economists have been forced to recalibrate their forecasts, with the brunt of downward revisions falling on the U. S., China, and Mexico. Overlaying this was a spike in U.S. Treasury volatility, an abrupt supply chain realignment, and the temporary freeze of reciprocal tariffs lasting ninety days.

Amid these headwinds, cautious optimism emerged as the U.S. and China signaled progress through a tentative framework addressing rare earths, raising the possibility of extending the Aug. 12th tariff pause. Elsewhere, global trade negotiations remain in flux: The deadline for reciprocal tariff increases was shifted from July 9th to Aug. 1st, accompanied by tariff warnings to a select group of countries and possible sector-specific tariff measures in the pipeline.

Even as this uncertainty prevails, mid-quarter tariff relief, front-loaded export orders, and accommodative policy measures outside the U.S. have contributed to a modest rebound in global activity. The Global Composite PMI climbed to 51.7 in June from April’s 50.8, offering some reassurance in high-frequency indicators.

In the U.S., business sentiment and survey data remained subdued, only showing tepid improvement after the tariff reprieve. Employment and retail metrics have held up, and the anticipated impact of tariffs on corporate earnings has yet to fully materialize. Meanwhile, the dollar has continued its downward trajectory amid the fading aura of American exceptionalism and growing fiscal concerns.

The risk of a U.S. recession remains non-trivial, given the drag of historically high tariff rates and continued policy ambiguity. Still, the adaptability of U.S. corporates, coupled with fiscal stimulus and deregulation, may serve as a counterweight, offering stabilization.

Europe, by contrast, has maintained steady activity and currency strength, with inflation moderating to 2.0%. As the year unfolds, we expect European growth to cool modestly due to softer consumption and persistent external challenges, though ramped-up defense spending stands out as a prospective medium-term tailwind.

In China, authorities have leaned more heavily on monetary easing and the rollout of pre-announced stimulus measures to cushion the economy against trade-related shocks. Current consensus puts Chinese growth this year at 4.5% – higher than the IMF’s 4.0% projection published in April. Chinese policymakers are likely to continue a gradual, data-dependent approach, reserving more forceful intervention as warranted. Given the resilience in headline activity indicators but ongoing softness in industrial profits and inflation, a renewed emphasis on supply-side reforms could emerge, with potential benefits that may reverberate through the broader emerging market space.

Fed in No Hurry to Cut; Attacks on its Independence Intensify

As we look ahead to the third quarter, we expect markets to get a more tangible glance into the real-world impact of economic policies implemented by the Trump administration since its start in January. We are of the view that in the U.S. economy, macro data is likely to be on the softer side as unprecedented levels of uncertainty dent investor and consumer sentiment. However, the effects of trade and immigration policies are likely to keep the inflation outlook highly fluid, complicate visibility for FOMC policymakers, and challenge the dominant market narrative of two 25bps rate cuts penciled in for this year.

As the Fed remains in “wait-and-see” mode, seeking better visibility on the key economic trends that inform its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, we expect intensifying pressure by the White House on the Fed in general and Chair Jerome Powell in particular. We believe investors should be prepared for a scenario in which a “shadow chair” is identified by President Donald Trump during the third quarter, whose opinions on monetary policy are likely to become a meaningful noise factor. A “shadow chair” could even significantly undermine Mr. Powell for the remainder of his mandate, which ends in May 2026.

An additional factor that is likely to cloud economic and market outlooks during the upcoming quarter is the effect of President Trump’s signature legislation, the so called “Big, Beautiful Bill,” (BBB). While some market participants may see the potential for economic stimulus from tax cut extensions for individuals, and from tax incentives for companies to invest in the US economy, others could focus on larger budget deficits for “as far as the eye can see.” The balance of how the market interprets the likely macro impact of the BBB and the inflation data in the summer months is likely to set the direction of travel for UST yields in the third quarter and, ultimately, investor sentiment on emerging markets.

The resilient U.S. consumer and labor market, alongside continuing backtracking by the Trump government on some of its most extreme trade-related posturing, has likely diminished the risks of a U.S. recession for the rest of 2025. However, we continue to expect an environment characterized by “whiffs of stagflation” in the U.S. economy. In that context – and given that the factors which have eroded U.S. economic exceptionalism tend to be home-grown and idiosyncratic rather than global and universal – we continue to see a relatively benign backdrop for emerging markets investing. This is especially true as it relates to EMFX and local currency sovereign debt, which we expect to remain our favorite emerging markets expressions in the third quarter.

Amid dismantling of trades anchored by the U.S. economic exceptionalism narrative that dominated the post-COVID market environment, a soft(er) USD remains one of our main convictions, especially if Fed credibility and independence suffer further damage under the “shadow Fed chair” scenario discussed above. In addition, due to ongoing trade frictions and global economic uncertainty, an overall weaker global growth outlook for the rest of the year is likely to translate into lower inflationary pressures in emerging market economies. This will offer larger space for monetary easing by central banks, supporting duration in local curves.

As for hard currency emerging market credit, amid tight spreads that have fully reverted to pre-Liberation Day levels (or even beyond in some cases), performance is likely to be driven by the few remaining idiosyncratic stories with material triggers for repricing – regardless of top-down context. On the other end of the “barbell,” we expect to continue to embrace stories anchored by very strong sovereign credit fundamentals that would be in a better position to withstand headline-driven abrupt changes in market sentiment.

Geopolitical Calm After Whiplash 

In Europe, in addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the focus will be on the economic, political, and geopolitical implications of newly agreed defense spending commitments made by NATO members at the Hague summit in June. Under significant U.S. pressure, most of the alliance’s members agreed on a historic increase in their annual defense spending targets to 5.0% of GDP by 2035, from 2.0% previously. This was split between 3.5% on direct military spending and 1.5% on supporting infrastructure, technology, etc. Over the medium-term, the decision appears set to have significant impact on European and global security, as well as on macroeconomic, fiscal and trade dynamics.

In terms of Ukraine, we maintain our long-standing, strong conviction call that a ceasefire remains a low probability scenario for the foreseeable future. Speculation on this topic will remain widespread amid what has now become routine bilateral calls between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, we remain of the view that for the conflict to pause, let alone settle, the conditions do not yet exist. If anything, risks of renewed sanction pressure by the U.S. on Russia appear to have increased, while Europe is working diligently to ensure Ukraine remains well-provisioned and can avoid capitulating to the Kremlin’s demands.

In Asia, U.S.-China relations remain delicately poised with the ever-present risk of renewed tensions – the recent progress on trade notwithstanding. While the prospect of a full-scale embargo has receded, markets should be prepared for alternating periods of escalation and détente through the third quarter. Countries such as Mexico may face increasing pressure to align their China policies with those of the U.S. Trade agreements and frameworks involving major export economies such as Japan and South Korea will also be closely monitored by market participants for signals of broader regional direction.

Turning to Latin America, Mexico’s measured advancement toward incremental tariff relief is a constructive development. However, a broader landscape is characterized by persistent uncertainty, particularly as attention shifts toward the forthcoming USMCA renewal. Security cooperation is likely to persist and bodes well for relations with the U.S. despite possible domestic economic and political ripple effects. U.S.-Venezuela policy became hawkish in the second quarter. The votes of U.S. hardliners in Congress, which triggered cancellation of key oil operation licenses, were prioritized ahead of the budget vote. However, the passage of the BBB in the U.S. could pave the way for a recalibration of U.S. engagement in the coming quarters, with strong advocacy anticipated from influential domestic actors such as Chevron. On a related note, immigration policy is expected to remain a central pillar of the Trump agenda.

In the Middle East, baseline expectations point to the Israel-Iran truce holding throughout much of the quarter, though risks of renewed escalation cannot be dismissed given the absence of a formal ceasefire and ongoing hostilities in Gaza. Regional credits most vulnerable to macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan, are likely to continue benefiting from robust multilateral and regional support, providing a buffer against pronounced balance of payments challenges.

Investment Strategy Review and Outlook

Often, emerging markets have frustrated investors. With tariff disputes, geopolitical conflicts and worries about a U.S. recession, it may not seem like the right moment to lean into the asset class. But on the contrary, investing in emerging markets is an ideal way to capitalize on the uncertainty – as long investments are executed with Gramercy’s “Better Approach.”

The traditional, passive index-based approach to emerging markets is outdated, resulting in poor returns and elevated risk. It forces investors to own unstable assets and creates unbalanced portfolios. For instance, in 1998, the Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) included a significant portion of Argentine bonds, despite the country’s high default risk. Similarly, in 2022, the same index included a large amount of Russian and Ukrainian bonds just before the Russian invasion. These examples highlight how a single risky credit can weigh on an entire basket, the major flaw of this type of investing in emerging markets debt (EMD).

Gramercy’s “Better Approach,” however, involves a “barbell strategy” that balances high-quality yield from high conviction private and public credit with more asymmetric credit and special situations exposure. This strategy allows investors to capture significant upside while minimizing the threat of non-recoverable mistakes. This is especially valuable in the global markets of recent quarters, where uncertainty has reigned.

The implementation of this approach requires strong, active EMD and special situation capabilities, as well as a focus on private credit in emerging markets – which, thanks to tight covenants and hard collateral, often has a lower risk profile than private credit in the U.S. Overall, this blend offers high risk-adjusted returns and low leverage, while dollar-denominated lending avoids negative swings in local currency.

By pairing high-quality public and private credit in this multi-asset strategy, investors can achieve a well-balanced portfolio that emphasizes careful security selection and correlated and uncorrelated collateral. This approach allows investors to not only protect themselves, but thrive. The second quarter truly underscored the power of this “Better Approach to Emerging Markets®”.

Multi-Asset 

Despite continued global uncertainty, the Gramercy Multi-Asset strategy delivered on its absolute return objective in the second quarter, advancing the streak to eleven consecutively positive quarters.

Public credit markets in the second quarter were marked by elevated volatility but no meaningful dislocation. Credit spreads widened modestly during periods of geopolitical tension and macro uncertainty, especially in April, but remained within historical ranges and tightened again by June. Overall, credit markets signaled caution – not panic – underscoring the value of maintaining risk discipline without overreacting to transient noise. Public Credit was a positive contributor to the strategy, though remains underweight.

In Private Credit, there were no exits or additions during the quarter, though we will have visibility on each in the coming months. Accordingly, the strategy remains a key overweight in the face of our most convicted theme of 2025: volatility. The strategy was the largest contributor in the second quarter.

In Opportunistic Credit/Equity, the second quarter performance was led by positioning in Ecuador sovereign bonds, which rallied strongly following President Daniel Noboa’s re-election and inauguration. As we outlined in last quarter’s note, the bonds were pricing in a worst-case scenario ahead of the vote, providing favorable asymmetry. This thesis played out over April and May, with the market responding positively to Mr. Noboa’s victory and the political clarity it brought. We took advantage of the rally to realize gains, significantly trimming exposure by quarter-end. Elsewhere, weakness in the China property sector weighed on returns amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, soft macro data, and disappointing signs of policy inertia.

In the Special Situations portion, the strategy continues to make progress in existing positions. There is also a highly attractive opportunity in the late stages of diligence that may enter the portfolio in the coming months.

The Global Hedge Strategy continues to have no position. While tariff-driven volatility has largely subsided, this was replaced in the second quarter with heighten tensions surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict, which kept the risk premium elevated. Nonetheless, global markets showed remarkable resilience, with no meaningful dislocations. While risk assets wobbled and safe haven flows briefly picked up, core market structures remained intact and price action was orderly. In this environment, hedging continued to be expensive without offering attractive asymmetries, providing little justification for any new initiation. As such, we held steady within our global hedge component, reflecting a deliberate choice to avoid overpaying for insurance when markets, though jittery, were not breaking down.

Our 2025 theme of volatility continues to play out, adding tariff tensions and new geopolitical conflicts to the growing list of crises, but our absolute return strategy continues to operate unabated. The multi-asset portfolio continues to grow, via performance and increasing client interest. With eyes on potential monetizations, as well as a very attractive pipeline, we eagerly look forward to the second half of 2025.

Capital Solutions

Emerging markets present a dynamic and evolving landscape of opportunities. Recent U.S. tariff adjustments have reshaped trade relationships with key partners in Asia, while Latin America faces a lighter tariff burden. These changes have contributed to currency volatility and tighter macro conditions, but they also underscore the resilience of select emerging market regions and the growing investor focus on diversified, inflation-hedged assets.

Amid this backdrop, emerging markets corporate primary issuances have increased by 45% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter of 2024, according to BondRadar, as companies seek USD-denominated financing to mitigate local currency risk and capitalize on favorable conditions of select credit markets. BondRadar shows that as of June 2025, EM corporate primary issuances during the second quarter from high yield issuers amounted to $29 billion.

Our portfolio, fully hedged or USD-based, remains protected from FX volatility, with less than 4% direct exposure to export revenues likely impacted by U.S. tariff increases. This defensive positioning is the result of our disciplined investment framework that emphasizes downside protection, short-duration credit exposure, and flexible allocation across resilient sectors. While policy uncertainty remains high – especially given the competing U.S. narratives on trade – certain jurisdictions continue to offer attractive investment opportunities.

Mexico stands out amid the global supply chain reconfiguration. Its strong trade ties under USMCA, competitive wages, and real estate costs have helped it overtake China as the top U.S. import source. Although some industrial sectors, such as autos, face scrutiny and tariffs on non-U.S. content, our exposure remains clear of these risks. Our portfolio in Mexico focuses on industrial real estate near the U.S. border, SME lending for supply chain integration, and infrastructure linked to logistics and energy resilience. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s pragmatic stance on U.S. relations, coupled with internal economic strength, positions the country favorably for continued nearshoring-led growth. A potential USMCA review in the second half of 2025 is expected to result in stricter rules of origin but otherwise stable trade terms, which will support medium – to long-term investment opportunities.

We are closely monitoring Brazil, which had benefited from a lighter 10% U.S. tariff until the latest announcement of a 50% tariff across the board, as new tensions in the diplomatic relationship arise. This could impact an appreciating real and sustained global demand for Brazilian commodities. Our approach in Brazil has centered on low-volatility sectors and real assets with strong collateral backing. We continue to focus on USD-based lending to companies navigating Brazil’s high-rate environment, diversified exposures in commodity-linked industries (excluding high-volatility grains), and capital stability structures for local blue-chip borrowers that have flexibility on demand and low exposure to U.S. exports. These strategies allow us to manage inflationary risk and tariff increases and capitalize on companies seeking cross-border financing solutions with currency-hedged assets.

In the Andean region, our Peru SME platform features a diversified book of short-duration loans largely exposed to Asian, not U.S., export markets – shielding it from U.S. tariff risk and allowing for quick capital turnover and cash flow visibility. In Colombia, our pension payroll platform is one of our top USD-return assets, secured by strong overcollateralization and protected through currency hedging. It also aligns closely with ESG mandates by financing underserved communities and adhering to responsible lending practices.

Türkiye continues to present attractive opportunities, driven by high local rates and stable USD revenues in key corporates. Most export-oriented borrowers are focused on Europe rather than the U.S., mitigating tariff increase risk. Our platform supports companies with liability optimization strategies and low leverage, offering exposure to strong private credit opportunities amid a still-fragile macro backdrop.

Across emerging markets, our approach remains grounded in a multi-layered, defensive strategy. Minimal direct exposure to sensitive exports, sector diversification, and robust downside protection through strong collateral packages have been key pillars of our risk management. USD direct lending or USD-hedged structures and flexible, short-duration allocations further enhance portfolio resilience. In a rapidly shifting trade environment, Latin America stands out as one of winners and key investment markets.

Overall, Capital Solutions deployed approximately $200 million in the second quarter, through a mix of new deals, loan upsizes, and platform loans. These were diversified across sectors such as real estate, oil and gas, financial, healthcare, and food. Geographically, our investments spanned Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Angola, and Costa Rica. At the end of the quarter, we had outstanding commitments in excess of $180 million, coupled with a strong pipeline of over $250 million in the advanced due diligence stage, with around $1 billion in early-stage deals.

This pipeline includes opportunities in real estate in Mexico and Costa Rica, financials in Colombia, agribusiness in Brazil and Peru, oil and gas in Mexico and Africa, consumer goods in Mexico and Colombia, food in Türkiye, healthcare in Mexico and Brazil, mining in Peru and industrials in Chile.

Emerging Markets Debt

The second quarter of 2025 delivered a steady stream of market-moving events on trade, fiscal policy, geopolitical flare-ups and softening macroeconomic data. Despite the noise, risk assets broadly rallied, underscoring the market’s resilience in the face of deep and persistent uncertainty. U.S. equity markets surged, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rising 10.6% and 17.7%, respectively, even after entering the quarter under severe pressure from new tariffs and policy volatility. Emerging markets debt also delivered solid returns. Hard currency sovereigns and corporates gained 3.3% and 1.6%, respectively, while local currency debt outperformed with a 7.6% return, helped by broad U.S. dollar weakness as global investors began to reassess dollar exposure. U.S. Treasuries experienced significant intra-quarter volatility driven by shifting inflation expectations, fiscal concerns, and geopolitical risks. Ultimately, they ended the quarter relatively flat. Meanwhile, global monetary policy grew more fragmented, with central banks taking diverging paths in response to local growth and inflation dynamics. Overall, while the quarter posed no shortage of challenges, markets broadly looked through the volatility.

Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect volatility and uncertainty to remain dominant themes across markets. Trade developments have resurfaced as a key risk, with the U.S. administration adopting a more combative stance in the lead-up to the newly extended Aug. 1st deadline for major trade agreements. This escalation in rhetoric could lead to renewed market dislocations, especially if policy direction remains unclear. Meanwhile, the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop continues to evolve. Signs of stagflation have raised questions about the longer-term trajectory of the economy. While the risk of an outright recession has not been eliminated, it appears to carry lower probability, given the expected fiscal boost from the Big Beautiful Bill. The future direction of U.S. monetary policy will depend on how this growth-inflation balance plays out. For now, the Federal Reserve remains on hold, though its credibility and independence are increasingly being tested amid rising political pressures and concerns over fiscal sustainability.

In this environment, we remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for emerging market fixed income, especially in areas that combine solid fundamentals with attractive carry. We continue to find value in high-quality, emerging market hard currency corporates, where balance sheets remain strong, technicals are supportive, and yields are still compelling relative to developed market credit. We also see opportunity in local currency sovereign debt, particularly in markets where real rate cushions and easing policy paths offer a favorable risk-reward backdrop. Importantly, we believe global investors’ structural overweights in U.S. assets and growing doubts about U.S. exceptionalism will continue to drive incremental flows into diversified emerging market exposures. To navigate this complex and fluid environment, we believe active risk management and a bottom-up approach to security selection are essential. Remaining nimble and focused on fundamentals will be critical to capturing value and managing downside risks in what is shaping up to be another dynamic quarter for emerging markets.

Special Situations

The Special Situations team continues to focus on the successful management and monetization of our existing portfolio of legal assets in emerging markets, including in Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Argentina, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, as well as in developed markets, including the U.S. and the U.K.

Elsewhere in litigation finance, we see attractive opportunities in secondary transactions involving legal assets, law firm portfolio loans, and claim funding opportunities. As we have done in past deals, we seek to structure these investments with insurance to protect against the downside. In addition, through our network of relationships in the U.S., Europe, and Latin America, we are evaluating several attractive deals outside of litigation finance that have high potential returns with similar downside protection characteristics. They would include our unique insurance capabilities, completion guarantees, and other credit enhancements.

In addition to our ongoing work in litigation finance, we have turned our focus to the significant imbalance in data center capacity across the U.S. As a result, we are in advanced investment discussions around a cutting-edge, prefabricated data center project designed to be fully AI-ready and deployable in under 12 months. By co-locating on the premises of a major energy company under a long-term power purchase agreement, we can bypass the grid connectivity and power supply constraints that typically delay traditional data center builds by three to five years. This innovative approach to digital infrastructure, supported by seasoned vendors and well-capitalized strategic partners, is generating strong interest from both investor partners and enterprise clients.

Conclusion

As we look ahead to the third quarter, uncertainty has become the norm. Given additional tariffs and continuing trade negotiations, new tensions in the Middle East, whispers of concern around Fed autonomy and U.S economic uncertainty, we anticipate ongoing volatility and limited predictability in the markets. From a top-down perspective, these crosscurrents signal a dispersion of outcomes, even as risk assets have broadly rallied and remained resilient.

Against this backdrop, it is imperative to frequently test baseline scenarios against new developments and evolving prospects. We will continue to carefully select securities and structure deals with tight covenants and strong collateral. On the positive side, this environment continues to offer an array of opportunities generated by high carry, valuation overshoots, and changing relative values between, and within, major asset classes.

Gramercy remains confident that the firm is exceedingly well positioned to navigate, and benefit from, market swings and complex developments. As we approach the third quarter of an extraordinary year in the markets and globally, we are poised and prepared to deliver strong results for our clients.

About Gramercy

Gramercy is a global emerging markets alternatives investment manager with offices in West Palm Beach, Greenwich, London, Buenos Aires, Miami, and Mexico City and dedicated lending platforms in Mexico, Türkiye, Peru, Pan-Africa, Brazil, and Colombia. The $6.6 billion firm, founded in 1998, seeks to provide investors with a better approach to emerging markets, delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns supported by a transparent and robust institutional platform. Gramercy offers alternative and long-only strategies across emerging markets asset classes, including multi-asset, direct lending, EM debt and special situations. Gramercy’s mission is to positively impact the well-being of our clients, portfolio investments, and team members. Gramercy is a Registered Investment Adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a Signatory of the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI). Gramercy Ltd, an affiliate, is registered with the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). 

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