Market Monitor Features:

Market Dashboard

Fixed Income

Source for data tables: Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Gramercy. EM Fixed Income is represented by the following JPMorgan Indicies: EMBI Global, GBI-EM Global Diversified, CEMBI Broad Diversified and CEMBI Broad High Yield. DM Fixed Income is represented by the JPMorgan JULI Total Return Index and Domestic High Yield Index. Fixed Income data is as of April 23, 2020, Equity and Commodity data is as of April 24, 2020.

Emerging Market Credit – EMBI Global Diversified
EM Investment Grade vs US Investment Grade
EM High Yield vs US High Yield
Flow Tracker – Monthly Data
Flow Tracker – Annual Data

Source for graphs: Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Gramercy. As of April 24, 2020. 

Emerging Markets COVID-19 Case Summary

Global Economic Forecasts

IMF April 2020 World Economic Outlook

Market Consensus

High Frequency

Gramercy Insight:

The IMF’s global growth forecast for this year of -3.0% is below the market consensus but we expect estimates to continue to be revised down in the coming weeks and months, particularly as more data on the economic impact thus far becomes available. Growth continues to face downside risk in the near term, depending on crisis management and challenges associated with swift demand-side recovery.

China’s manufacturing Caixin PMI print disappointed slightly relative to expectations at 49.4 (vs. market consensus of 50.5) this week. The easing relative to March is likely mostly reflective of weak external demand conditions with particuarly soft new export orders. Additional data in the coming weeks should be monitored closely to further assess if the weakness is more related to domestic factors as opposed to external ones. If the former, concerns over a W-shaped recovery would surface.

Emerging Markets Sovereign Fundamentals

Emerging Markets Corporate Fundamentals

Additional Crisis Resources:

Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Case Tracker

IMF Global Policy Response Monitor

Please contact Matt Christ, Managing Director, with any questions:  [email protected]

This document is for informational purposes only. The information presented is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Gramercy may have current investment positions in the securities or sovereigns mentioned above. The information and opinions contained in this paper are as of the date of initial publication, derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Gramercy to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. This paper may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole discretion of the reader. You should not rely on this presentation as the basis upon which to make an investment decision. Investment involves risk. There can be no assurance that investment objectives will be achieved. Investors must be prepared to bear the risk of a total loss of their investment. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets or smaller capital markets. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation, and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The information provided herein is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation.