Source for data tables: Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Gramercy. EM Fixed Income is represented by the following JPMorgan Indicies: EMBI Global, GBI-EM Global Diversified, CEMBI Broad Diversified and CEMBI Broad High Yield. DM Fixed Income is represented by the JPMorgan JULI Total Return Index and Domestic High Yield Index. Fixed Income data is as of September 10, 2020, Equity and Commodity data is as of September 11, 2020 (Afternoon).
Source for graphs: Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Gramercy. As of September 11, 2020.
Source: Worldometer as of September 11, 2020.
IMF April 2020 World Economic Outlook
In late June the IMF made major downward revisions to its global, regional and country growth projections and market consensus is yet to catch up with the Fund’s expected nearly 5% contraction in global growth and weaker recovery in 2021. We maintain our view that despite the material growth downgrade, downside risks remain, given challenges associated with reopening strategies and lack of clarity regarding the outlook for COVID-19.
Composite PMI data for August sent contradictory signals: it rebounded strongly in the US, while pulling back in the Eurozone, albeit still in +50 territory. China’s composite PMI has been >50 since May. Amid gradual reopening strategies, tracking of consumer behavior and mobility will be an important leading indicator in determining the strength and timing of economic recovery going forward.
Additional Crisis Resources:
Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Case Tracker
IMF Global Policy Response Monitor
Please contact Matt Christ, Managing Director, with any questions: [email protected]
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